USA elections seen from Europe


We nearly got at the date, the path was innovative even compared to Berlusconi, mostly on the Republican side. The initial number of candidates has been new to say the least. The elimination process started in a relaxed and pleasant way, bending more to a cabaret show than a traditional political fight. The color was immediately provided by the candidate only a very few would have bet anything on (even within his own party). On the Democrat side, nothing flamboyant has been happening, the selection process in comparison can be compared to the boring party elections prevailing until recent years in the Balkans (“Phantoms of Moscow” by Enzo Bettiza is a firsthand description of that environment).

Many analysts have already expressed their opinion on what will come the day after. The majority seems to see a large equity market correction associated with Trump (an opportunity for traders?) and a boring continuation of the status quo with Clinton. Financial markets analysis is available also for a less immediate future, here we have the sectorial indications, the expectations on the future fiscal policy, new regulations and expected impact on sectors.

There are two subjects that still don’t not seem to grab so much attention, but relevant for those who invest not only for the next few months. The demographic change already happening and changing consumer preferences exists in elections too, the geopolitical attentions of the two candidates are largely different.

The experience and attentions of the two candidates seem to present Trump as the “cunctator” (after Fabio Massimo, Roman Emperor), Clinton as more active (keeping to the roman tradition, a modern version of Scipio Africanus). The attention of Clinton could be focused on Asia, we should expect some clear message on North Korea (or more than just a message).

On November 8th, the vote of about 224 million Americans will be known: 98 millions of these belong to the baby boomers and older generations, 126 million to the Millennials and the X ones. A cycle related to age in the participation rate to elections has been observed, the older citizens have past their peak in participation and 70% or less of them should express their vote, the younger generations are increasing their participation and 54% of them should cast their vote. If the participation rates don’t show any surprise, we could see an even participation of the two elector’s macro classes, in any case 2016 will be the last election where baby boomers have a dominant say.

By looking at the next presidency, and thinking also that the next president will most likely serve only one mandate (both because of his/her own age and the party’s demographic change), we should observe a behavior designed to favor the reelection within the party in four years’ time.

The party of the Elephant is not hiding its turbulent change, the Donkey one seems to hide it (even if present there too). The generational change we are seeing pushes some questions: are we sure the surprise is this election and not the next one? The Obama (Barack) presidency has been greeted eight years ago as a revolutionary one: was it such a revolution? did it at least start? Was he already a president for the next generation?

The possible geopolitical evolution during the next four years could offer us some uncertain moments, more and more necessary for an organized evolution of the western capacity to protect its own interests. The western companies that see Asia as the land of the future, even more the ones that have a clear preference for Korea, should keep a strong faith, and show lots of patience, there is not yet any reason to think their investment is wrong.


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