European aligned messages

 

TaorminaThe explicit and non-explicit messages by Trump, the European electoral season and signals from different sources, indicate that a step in the revision of the European governance could be close in time. 2018 could be a year offering us important innovations, anticipated by come background noise.

 

Emmanuel Macron election to French president is a clear support signal to a revision of the European integration process, dealing with the stability of the common currency.

The relief market move that came with French evolution was evident, the weakness of the Euro changed into a relative strength.

The young president could not enjoy a too long celebration for his victory, his first challenge has been the energic handshake with the most important sponsor of Marine Le Pen. Out of these picturesque meetings, closed in the extraordinary Taormina landscape, the always silent Angela Merkel emerges in a Bavarian bier stand, holding the classic one liter glass and calmly informing the world that if the geo-political balance that has ruled over Europe since the end of WWII is not changing, it is at least becoming less reliable (Trump’s USA on one side and Brexit UK on the other), for this reason, without detailing, she declares that Europe will need to do more on its own.

Less attention was given to the speech of Jens Weidmann in these same days (the full speech is downloadable at this link: https://www.bis.org/review/r170602a.htm). Weidmann could not avoid repeating his thoughts about monetary policy and banking system structure (without those statements we could not believe to the rest of his speech, they are a kind of his personal signature), his closing is very interesting and somewhat new to him, he is accepting to see a still undefined federal structure for Europe.

More and more often recently we have read new contributions (academic and not, Mediterranean and Northern) dealing with a structural evolution of the European Union and with its legacy problems (Mediterranean countries public debt).

Putting together the election of Macron in France and the UK exit from the European Union (with its meaning in terms of redistribution of voting rights), we understand why we should not be surprised to see an acceleration in the European political dynamics during this second half of the year and during 2018.

In synthesis, if Americans might start to show signs of delusion referring to the capacity of Trump to deliver on his promises (tax, health care, environment, …), Europeans should be thankful for the unexpected push coming from a USA that seems to openly pull back from the global role it had until very recently.

We have got used to a very silent and soporific Merkel, she might show us a new pace, not wanting to miss any advantage coming from her honeymoon with the new USA president.

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